A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that split the nation and triggered chaos, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly split population where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author advocates unification or the current situation. They authors two articles that seek impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the concept that there might be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government must work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he said. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has has valuable insights to learn from the other's positions."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
